Security authorities estimate 5 scenarios of clash at Chong Bok area

This assessment follows heightened tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border after a skirmish in late May. While the Thai government has reaffirmed its commitment to a peaceful resolution, Cambodia has opted to escalate the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Thai security authorities have identified the following five potential developments:

• JBC discussion favouring Thailand: Authorities estimate a 20–40% probability of this scenario occurring, with benefits to Thailand projected at around 80%. Cambodia would withdraw its troops and renounce claims over the Chong Bok area as well as other overlapping territorial disputes.
• Partial agreement at JBC discussions: This scenario has a 60–80% likelihood of materialising, with advantages for Thailand’s national interests estimated at 50%. Both nations would agree to withdraw their forces. However, Thailand might be at a slight disadvantage, leaving the situation fragile with the ongoing risk of renewed conflict.

• Failed JBC discussion leading to ICJ involvement: This scenario is highly likely from Cambodia’s perspective, while Thailand is expected to contest the ICJ’s jurisdiction. Should legal proceedings become necessary, Thailand will present historical evidence proving its registration of several ancient sites, including Prasat Ta Muen Thom and Prasat Ta Kwai. Additionally, Thailand would need to be vigilant against unilateral petitions seeking provisional measures from the ICJ to manage the dispute, which could put Thailand at a disadvantage.
• Failed JBC discussion escalating to military action: This scenario is considered moderately possible and would have negative consequences for both nations. The conflict could extend to the areas surrounding the two historic castles located between Ubon Ratchathani and Surin provinces.
• Military action prior to JBC discussions: The worst-case scenario involves armed conflict preceding negotiations, with an estimated 20–40% likelihood of occurring. This outcome would be highly detrimental to both sides. Cambodia might use discussions as a diversion to gain time and prepare an offensive, ultimately leading to the third scenario.

Thai security authorities believe the second scenario appears to be the most probable outcome, while Thailand favours the first scenario and Cambodia seems inclined towards the third. There are concerns that attempts may be made to provoke the fourth or fifth scenario in order to justify legal action at the ICJ.