Thailand faces border turmoil amid economic pressures and internal political struggles

Since former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra boldly declared during last year’s political campaign, “Tell the drug dealers that Thaksin is back,” following the new government’s declaration of drug control as a national agenda, Thailand has faced rising issues linked to drug production along its northern borders.

The largest drug production centers lie opposite Thailand’s northern provinces—Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Mae Hong Son—and drugs flood into the country via border areas, with Bangkok and surrounding provinces serving as staging points before trafficking to southern Thailand.

The current government’s aim is not only to eradicate domestic drug problems but also to dismantle production centers located in ethnic minority areas in Myanmar, relying on cooperation with neighboring countries.

Flashpoint at Thai-Myanmar Border: The Red Wa Militia

Tensions have escalated along the Thai-Myanmar border, especially in areas influenced by the Red Wa militia, which is suspected of operating large drug production sites and involved in ongoing territorial disputes. These unresolved border demarcations have led to clashes with Thai soldiers, as reports confirm Red Wa forces have intruded into Thai territory at several points, raising the risk of armed conflict.

The Royal Thai Army has presented maps of Red Wa militia bases along the border to Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, highlighting overlapping territorial claims and assessing the growing strength of the militia, including their arsenal of armed drones, anti-aircraft weapons, and large underground tunnels used as protected bases against artillery attacks.

Among Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, the Red Wa militia is considered the most powerful and feared, with guerilla warfare tactics that intimidate opposing factions.

Currently, the Third Army Region of Thailand maintains local dialogue with Red Wa leaders to promote peaceful coexistence. However, in case of territorial incursions, the military employs protest and pressure tactics to push the militia back, a strategy used for over 30 years.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin’s recent stern warnings to treat the Red Wa militia as an enemy, and his threat to take direct action if Myanmar fails to do so, have heightened tensions. The military is closely monitoring the situation, fearing that conflict along the Thai-Myanmar border could erupt at any moment.

Ongoing Conflict on Thai-Cambodian Border

In tandem with the Thai-Myanmar border issues, longstanding tensions persist along the Thai- Myanmar border in Tak and Kanchanaburi provinces, where clashes between Myanmar troops and ethnic minorities continue, including drone and aircraft bombings near Thai territory.

The Royal Thai Air Force has deployed F-16 fighter jets multiple times to deter incursions, safeguarding Thailand’s airspace and border communities.

Amid this, a recent clash between Thai and Cambodian forces at Chong Bok, Ubon Ratchathani province, has shocked the public. The Paetongtarn government, closely linked to the Shinawatra family and Cambodian leadership, navigates complex family and political ties, including those between former PM Thaksin and former Cambodian PM Hun Sen.

Criminal Gangs and Military Buildup in Cambodia

Tensions have also risen due to allegations from Thaksin accusing a call center gang operating in Cambodia’s Poipet area of scamming Thai citizens. Meanwhile, Cambodia has significantly expanded its military capabilities over the past decade, acquiring advanced weaponry such as SH-1 self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launchers (Type 90B, RM-70, BM-21), and KS-1C surface-to-air missiles.

Compared to the 2011 military balance where Thailand held a 1:0.3 advantage over Cambodia, current estimates show a narrowing gap to about 1:0.8–0.9. Reserves and ammunition stocks also suggest Thailand may face longer and more intense conflicts requiring triple the military resources previously used.

Southern Border Unrest

The southern border provinces adjoining Malaysia have seen renewed unrest, partly sparked by Thaksin’s return after 20 years, during which he met with local Buddhist and Muslim leaders to seek reconciliation and apologized for past incidents, including the controversial Tak Bai case involving government officials.

A key flashpoint remains the strained peace talks with the BRN separatist group. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham has called for a shift in strategy to engage new BRN representatives who can effectively control local operations.

Political Instability Affects National Security

Phumtham acknowledged the many challenges Thailand faces, including global crises, but urged the public not to panic. He stressed ongoing diplomatic dialogues with neighbors and the importance of peaceful dispute resolution, highlighting that border disputes are a global norm and require mutual compromise.

However, Thailand’s current political landscape is fragile. The ruling coalition lacks unity, weakening Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s position and undermining national security. This perceived weakness emboldens neighboring countries to test Thailand’s resolve.