TAT warns of tourist arrivals decline amid Iran–Israel conflict
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is closely monitoring the Iran–Israel conflict and has warned of a decline in tourist arrivals from both Israel and Iran in Q3, outlining two possible scenarios for the Israeli market.
Meanwhile, Iranian arrivals are expected to fall sharply, similar to the 60% drop observed in 2018 following US sanctions.
Sorawong Thienthong, Minister of Tourism and Sports, stated that the Iran–Israel conflict, which escalated into direct military confrontation on June 13, has raised concerns of a regional war with potential impacts on the global economy and Thailand’s tourism sector.
TAT forecasts that the Israeli tourist market could be significantly affected, particularly from the second half of June through to Q3 2025, as Israel is a direct combat zone. Arrivals in the third quarter are expected to decline by up to 29%.
TAT has outlined two potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Recovery within Q3
If the situation stabilises within the third quarter, total Israeli tourist arrivals are expected to reach around 350,000—an increase of 24% from 2024, but still 77,000 fewer than the previously forecast 427,000 (52% growth).
Scenario 2: Prolonged conflict until November
If the conflict continues, the impact may last around six months (June–November), with arrivals expected to return to normal levels in December. Under this scenario, total Israeli arrivals in 2025 would reach approximately 335,000, which is 92,000 fewer than the original projection.
“Despite an expected downturn in the third quarter under both scenarios, this will not result in an overall decline in Israeli tourist arrivals compared to 2024, due to the strong numbers recorded in the first five months of 2025—a 76% increase. The conflict is only slowing the pace of growth,” Sorawong said.
Regarding Iran, only 28,259 Iranian tourists visited Thailand from January to May 2025, a 2% decrease from 2024. With Iranian airspace now closed, Mahan Air will suspend its six weekly direct flights to Bangkok and Phuket by the end of June, resulting in the loss of 1,800 seats per week.
Sorawong also warned of a sharp downturn, comparable to the 60% drop seen in 2018 following US sanctions, with a significant decline in Iranian arrivals expected in late 2025 due to the suspension of direct flights from July to December.
