Gold and Bitcoin Set for Record Highs as Trump Tariff Fears Drive Safe-Haven Demand

 

Investment specialists are forecasting significant opportunities in gold and Bitcoin as global economic uncertainty pushes investors toward safe-haven assets.

 

Potential US trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving this shift away from traditional markets.

 

Speaking at the Thailand Investment Forum 2025 organised by Krungthep Turakij, Thansettakij, and Post Today on Saturday, three prominent financial experts outlined their bullish outlook for alternative investments while acknowledging continued volatility in traditional equity markets.

 

 

Gold Targeting $4,000 Per Ounce

Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman and chief executive of MTS Gold Group, projected that gold could reach record highs of $3,000-$4,000 per ounce in the second half of 2025.

 

He attributed this primarily to uncertainty surrounding "Trump tariffs," whose exact implementation remains unclear following ongoing negotiations.

 

"The uncertainty creates an attractive environment for investors seeking safe-haven assets that currently offer high returns," Kritcharat said during the panel discussion on future investment trends.

 

 

The gold market has already demonstrated remarkable momentum. Prices have risen 30% in just the first three months of 2025, compared to a 35% gain for the entire year of 2024. This acceleration follows an average annual increase of 15% in the three years prior to recent global conflicts.

 

"Gold has surged from $2,000 two years ago and has now firmly established itself at $3,000," Kritcharat noted. "As the US dollar begins to weaken, gold has become a premier safe-haven asset."

 

 

 

While ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to support gold prices, Kritcharat emphasized that the potential impact of Trump's trade policies represents the primary driver for future price appreciation.

 

 

Bitcoin's Cyclical Surge Continues

Jirayut Srupsrisopa, founder and group chief executive of Bitkub Capital Group Holdings, highlighted Bitcoin's four-year cyclical pattern.

 

He noted that statistically, every fourth year marks a "golden year" for the cryptocurrency, with historical surges reaching up to 10,000%.

 

Currently valued at a market capitalization of $2.078 trillion, Bitcoin has gained significant institutional adoption. Americans now hold more Bitcoin than gold, and government holdings reflect this trend: the US maintains 200,000 Bitcoin, China holds over 100,000, and the UK possesses 80,000.

 

 

"I anticipate China will further increase its Bitcoin holdings, possibly matching the US position," Jirayut said.

 

He drew parallels between Bitcoin and prime Bangkok real estate, suggesting that major powers will hoard the cryptocurrency rather than sell it, supporting long-term price appreciation.

 

The executive also emphasized artificial intelligence's role in deepening investment across all asset classes, including Bitcoin, thereby sustaining growth momentum.

 

 

Equity Markets Face Continued Volatility

Trawut Luangsomboon, chief executive of Jitta Wealth, acknowledged significant capital market volatility in the first half of 2025, largely attributed to US tariff uncertainty.

 

However, he noted some relief following President Trump's 90-day postponement of new tariffs.

 

 

 

"No one can definitively predict the conclusion, especially regarding negotiations with the EU bloc," Trawut said. "The capital market's sentiment has been negatively affected psychologically, but much depends on negotiation outcomes."

 

Despite the uncertainty, Trawut remains optimistic about equity performance, suggesting that actual tariff implementations may prove less severe than initial announcements indicated.

 

"Informed investors are actively seeking assets to mitigate inflation effects, such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin," he said. "Investors who manage their portfolios well will undoubtedly achieve good long-term returns."

 

 

 

Thai Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism for Second Half 2025

Leading investment managers in Thailand foresee gradual improvement for the local stock market in the second half of 2025, following a challenging period marked by global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions.

 

While the market is believed to have moved past its lowest point, pervasive uncertainties continue to influence investor sentiment.

 

Chavinda Hanratanakool of Krungthai Asset Management indicated that successful tariff negotiations, however minor, would provide a positive catalyst, with clearer market direction expected by July.

 

 

 

Poj Harinsut of One Asset Management highlighted significant lingering uncertainties.

 

The prospect of renewed US tariffs could disrupt global monetary and fiscal policies, potentially leading to higher inflation and limiting interest rate cuts—developments that would not favor economic growth.

 

Win Phromphaet of Kasikorn Asset Management, while agreeing that the worst may be over, cautioned against complacency regarding global policy shifts.

 

 

He stressed the importance of proactively managing investments to account for inherent uncertainties in the coming months.

 

Fund managers strongly advise investors to re-evaluate and adjust their portfolios, seeking assets that offer resilience against inflationary pressures and market swings.

 

This ensures portfolios are robust enough to withstand potential volatility while capitalizing on emerging opportunities.