Covid-19 cases rising sharply, peak yet to come

Dr Jurai Wongsawat, an expert physician and spokesperson for the Department of Disease Control, provided an update on the current situation of Covid-19 and influenza outbreaks. As of May 21, 2025, Covid-19 cases are still on the rise. Over the past week (May 11–17), there were 49,065 new cases reported, while from May 18 to the present, 12,524 new cases have been recorded.

Meanwhile, the influenza situation remains steady. New cases for the week of May 11–17 totalled 6,837, and for this week so far, about 1,447 cases have been reported. The number of new flu cases is notably lower than Covid-19, as there was already a significant flu outbreak before the Songkran festival. Since then, the trend has stabilised but remains at around 6,000 to 8,000 cases per week.

Covid-19 and Influenza Fatality Rates

“Although Covid-19 cases are increasing, the mortality rate this year has not been as high as during the initial outbreak. The current death rate stands at 0.02%, down from 0.14% earlier, and slightly higher than the flu’s fatality rate of 0.01%. This may be because antiviral treatments and vaccines are available for influenza,” Jurai explained.

Measures to Slow the Spread

Emphasizing the need to slow Covid-19 transmission, especially to protect the vulnerable 608 group—those at higher risk of severe illness—such as seniors aged 65 and older, people with chronic diseases (including COPD(Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease), asthma, heart disease, stroke, kidney failure), individuals with brain disabilities who require full care, thalassemia patients, and those with compromised immune systems.

Also included are people with obesity (weighing 100 kilograms or more, or a BMI over 35), pregnant women, and young children under 3 years old. These groups require special protection from both Covid-19 and influenza.

With the school term now open, it’s crucial to emphasise screening for sick children and staff. Anyone showing respiratory symptoms should stay home, take a test kit, and if positive, seek medical care.

General precautions remain important. Wearing masks regularly is recommended, especially in crowded public places with poor ventilation, such as hospitals. Frequent handwashing is also strongly advised.

Dr Jurai stated that the current outbreak is expected to continue for another 2 to 3 months. “However, if the public cooperates by maintaining personal hygiene measures, the number of cases can be reduced more quickly. The Department has forecasted that if people consistently wash their hands, wear masks, and keep at least a one-metre distance from those with respiratory illnesses, the spread of infection can be effectively controlled,” she explained.

Regarding vaccinations, Jurai added that from May to August 2025, there is an ongoing campaign encouraging the vulnerable 608 group to receive free influenza vaccines at nearby public healthcare facilities or private clinics collaborating with NHSO.

As for Covid-19 vaccines, the government currently does not provide them free of charge. However, people in high-risk groups who have not been vaccinated recently or have never received a Covid-19 vaccine are advised to consider booster shots after consulting their doctors to ensure they are physically ready. For those who choose not to get vaccinated, strict and continuous self-protection measures must be maintained throughout the rainy season.

No New Mutations from Co-infection of Two Virus Families

When asked about the possibility of simultaneous infection with both Covid-19 and influenza, Jurai confirmed it can happen. Since immunity develops specifically for each virus, co-infection is possible in communities where multiple respiratory viruses circulate simultaneously, which is common during the rainy season. Cases of co-infection with Covid-19 and influenza or influenza and RSV have been observed, sometimes leading to more severe symptoms, though healthier individuals may not notice a significant difference.

Regarding concerns that co-infection might cause viruses to mix and create new variants, she clarified that Covid-19 and influenza viruses belong to different virus families and cannot exchange genetic material.

“The main concern is the mixing between influenza viruses and avian flu viruses, which can lead to mutations. For example, farmers who raise poultry or dairy cows might contract influenza while the animals carry avian flu viruses, allowing the viruses to combine, potentially causing more severe and easily spread infections,” Jurai said.

Current High-Case Provinces

The five provinces with the highest number of influenza cases are Bangkok (42,418), Nakhon Ratchasima (19,299), Chonburi (13,296), Ubon Ratchathani (12,996), and Chiang Mai (11,602).

For Covid-19, the top five provinces by case count are Bangkok (36,580), Chonburi (9,931), Nonthaburi (7,241), Pathum Thani (5,374), and Samut Prakan (5,327).